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Chitipa United vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Chitipa United
Chitipa United
FT
1 – 0
Red Lions
Red Lions
9/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Chitipa United50%
×Draw27%
Red Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chitipa United
1.40
Red Lions
0.84

Chitipa United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

Chitipa United
1.33
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Chitipa United
0.86
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw
77%
Chitipa United or Red Lions
73%
Draw or Red Lions
50%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+
24%
Red Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals
75%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
41%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
17%
Red Lions 1+ goals
57%
Red Lions 2+ goals
21%
Red Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)
69%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chitipa United scores more
50%
level
27%
Red Lions scores more
23%

Chitipa United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chitipa United vs Red Lions

Chitipa United beat Red Lions 1-0 in Super League on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.