Red Lions 0–2 Bangwe All Stars: Result & Stats

Red Lions

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bangwe All Stars

9/16/2023

Super League · Round 17Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Red Lions43%

×Draw30%

Bangwe All Stars27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red LionsExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.86

Red Lions

1.18

Bangwe All Stars

0.86

Red Lions creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

0.88

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Red Lions

0.88

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

Red Lions

1.00

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw

73%

Red Lions or Bangwe All Stars

70%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

57%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+

19%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals

69%

Red Lions 2+ goals

33%

Red Lions 3+ goals

12%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

58%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

21%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)

62%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Red Lions scores more

43%

level

30%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

27%

Red Lions at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff