Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bangwe All Stars vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Red Lions
Red Lions
6/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars46%
×Draw29%
Red Lions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangwe All Stars
1.27
Red Lions
0.84

Bangwe All Stars creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars
1.07
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars
0.87
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw
75%
Bangwe All Stars or Red Lions
71%
Draw or Red Lions
54%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
21%
Red Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
72%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
36%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
14%
Red Lions 1+ goals
57%
Red Lions 2+ goals
21%
Red Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
65%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more
46%
level
29%
Red Lions scores more
25%

Bangwe All Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Bangwe All Stars 2–0 Red Lions

Bangwe All Stars beat Red Lions 2-0 in Super League on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.