Red Bull Salzburg 2–2 SKN ST. Polten

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

SKN ST. Polten

Masaya Okugawa 34'

Takumi Minamino 13'

Husein Balić 60'

Daniel Luxbacher 43' (pen)

11/23/2019

Bundesliga · Round 15Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg64%

×Draw19%

SKN ST. Polten16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchSKN ST. Polten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.04

Red Bull Salzburg

2.25

SKN ST. Polten

1.04

Red Bull Salzburg creates 116% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 45 away

2.61

creates per match

1.24

0.85

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.61

SKN ST. Polten

1.24

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.85

SKN ST. Polten

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SKN ST. Polten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

84%

Red Bull Salzburg or SKN ST. Polten

81%

Draw or SKN ST. Polten

36%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

41%

SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

89%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

65%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

39%

SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals

65%

SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals

28%

SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

80%

SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

SKN ST. Polten away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.61 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.25

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.24 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

64%

level

19%

SKN ST. Polten scores more

16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Takumi Minamino

Red Bull Salzburg · F

8.4

Match Events

9'

Robert Ljubicic← Martin Rasner

10'

Dominik Hofbauer

13'

Takumi Minamino

34'

Masaya Okugawa↳ Takumi Minamino

43'

Daniel LuxbacherPenalty

60'

Husein Balić

60'

Patson Daka← Majeed Ashimeru

66'

Dominik Szoboszlai← Masaya Okugawa

74'

Enock Mwepu← Mohamed Camara

79'

Christoph Messerer← Michael Ambichl

86'

Roope Riski← Husein Balić

88'

Daniel Luxbacher

90'

Roope Riski

90'

Christoph Riegler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedSKN

Overview

79%Possession21%

19Total Shots5

5Corners1

7Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots5

6On Target3

7Off Target1

6Blocked1

15Inside Box5

4Outside Box0

Passing

79%Possession21%

705Total Passes190

579Accurate Passes78

82%Pass Accuracy41%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2