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Red Bull Salzburg vs SKN ST. Polten — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SKN ST. Polten
SKN ST. Polten
H. Wolf 87', 67'
J. Onguéné 82'
F. Gulbrandsen 56'
M. Dabour 47', 9'
A. Vallci 36'
5/26/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 10Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg64%
×Draw19%
SKN ST. Polten16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.25
SKN ST. Polten
1.04

Red Bull Salzburg creates 116% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 45 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.61
SKN ST. Polten
1.24

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.85
SKN ST. Polten
1.89

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SKN ST. Polten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
84%
Red Bull Salzburg or SKN ST. Polten
81%
Draw or SKN ST. Polten
36%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
41%
SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
89%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
65%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
39%
SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals
65%
SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals
28%
SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
80%
SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

SKN ST. Polten away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.61 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.25

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.24 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
64%
level
19%
SKN ST. Polten scores more
16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. DabourRed Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg · F
9.7

Match Events

9'
M. Dabour↳ F. Gulbrandsen
36'
A. Vallci
47'
M. Dabour↳ F. Gulbrandsen
56'
F. Gulbrandsen↳ M. Dabour
66'
A. Bernede← C. Leitgeb
67'
H. Wolf↳ D. Szoboszlai
70'
D. Hofbauer← E. Bajrami
70'
D. Schütz← R. Gartler
71'
J. Onguéné← A. Vallci
73'
X. Schlager← D. Szoboszlai
82'
J. Onguéné↳ André Ramalho
86'
Daniel Petrovic
87'
H. Wolf↳ S. Lainer
90'
N. Despotovic← R. Mišlov

Possession

70%Red

Shots

22Red

Pass accuracy

55%Red

Statistics

RedSKN
Overview
70%Possession30%
22Total Shots11
8Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
22Total Shots11
11On Target1
5Off Target6
6Blocked4
15Inside Box6
7Outside Box5
Passing
70%Possession30%
690Total Passes281
595Accurate Passes198
86%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs SKN ST. Polten

Red Bull Salzburg beat SKN ST. Polten 7-0 in Bundesliga on May 26, 2019.

Goals: M. Dabour (9', 47'), A. Vallci (36'), F. Gulbrandsen (56'), H. Wolf (67', 87'), J. Onguéné (82').

Red Bull Salzburg controlled possession (70%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Salzburg.