Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Napoli: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Napoli

C. Leitgeb 90+1'

F. Gulbrandsen 65'

M. Dabour 25'

A. Milik 14'

3/14/2019

UEFA Europa League · 8th FinalsRed Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg41%

×Draw25%

Napoli34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.38

Red Bull Salzburg

1.54

Napoli

1.38

Red Bull Salzburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

1.64

1.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.80

Napoli

1.64

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.13

Napoli

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

66%

Red Bull Salzburg or Napoli

75%

Draw or Napoli

59%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

20%

Napoli wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

79%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

45%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

20%

Napoli 1+ goals

75%

Napoli 2+ goals

40%

Napoli 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

55%

Napoli (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.80 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Napoli attack 1.64 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

41%

level

25%

Napoli scores more

34%

Red Bull Salzburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Ulmer

Red Bull Salzburg · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

A. Milik

25'

M. Dabour↳ D. Szoboszlai

42'

Jérôme Onguene

44'

Arkadiusz Milik

56'

Diadie Samassekou

59'

F. Gulbrandsen← E. Mwepu

65'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ A. Ulmer

74'

C. Leitgeb← D. Szoboszlai

74'

A. Diawara← P. Zieliński

78'

K. Malcuit← V. Chiricheș

86'

E. Håland← T. Minamino

88'

A. Younes← D. Mertens

90+1'

C. Leitgeb

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedNapoli

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots8

11Corners5

10Fouls6

Shots

21Total Shots8

5On Target4

11Off Target3

5Blocked1

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

579Total Passes435

489Accurate Passes332

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1