Napoli 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

H. Lozano 44'

E. Håland 11' (pen)

11/5/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Napoli56%

×Draw21%

Red Bull Salzburg23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.25

Napoli

2.05

Red Bull Salzburg

1.25

Napoli creates 64% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

2.15

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Napoli

2.15

Red Bull Salzburg

1.50

allows per match

Napoli

1.00

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

77%

Napoli or Red Bull Salzburg

79%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

44%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

33%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

87%

Napoli 2+ goals

61%

Napoli 3+ goals

33%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

71%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

36%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

71%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.15 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.05

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.50 + Napoli defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Napoli scores more

56%

level

21%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

23%

Napoli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Insigne

Napoli · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

Jérôme Onguene

11'

E. HålandPenalty

27'

Piotr Zieliński

37'

Marin Pongračić

44'

H. Lozano↳ L. Insigne

46'

S. Luperto← Mário Rui

46'

E. Mwepu← M. Pongracic

61'

M. Ashimeru← T. Minamino

73'

A. Milik← D. Mertens

75'

P. Daka← E. Håland

86'

Llorente← H. Lozano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliRed

Overview

55%Possession45%

29Total Shots12

7Corners8

7Fouls25

Shots

29Total Shots12

4On Target1

18Off Target8

7Blocked3

18Inside Box8

11Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

538Total Passes425

441Accurate Passes321

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls25

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3