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Red Bull Salzburg vs Grazer AK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Grazer AK
Grazer AK
K. Konate 88' (pen), 54'
A. Baran 80'
T. Schiestl 82'
M. Rusek 57', 22'
P. Koller 31'
2/4/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Red Bull Trainingszentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg36%
×Draw21%
Grazer AK43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.92
Grazer AK
2.12

Grazer AK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.96
Grazer AK
2.50

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.73
Grazer AK
1.88

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Grazer AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
57%
Red Bull Salzburg or Grazer AK
79%
Draw or Grazer AK
64%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
19%
Grazer AK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
85%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
57%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
30%
Grazer AK 1+ goals
88%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
62%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
45%
Grazer AK (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.96 + Grazer AK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Grazer AK attack 2.50 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
36%
level
21%
Grazer AK scores more
43%

Grazer AK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Rusek
27'
31'
P. Koller
54'
K. Konate
57'
M. Rusek
80'
A. Baran
82'
T. Schiestl
88'
K. KonatePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Red Bull Salzburg 3–4 Grazer AK

Grazer AK beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on February 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Rusek (22', 57'), P. Koller (31'), K. Konate (54', 88' pen), A. Baran (80'), T. Schiestl (82').

The match was played at Red Bull Trainingszentrum in Salzburg.