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Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Grazer AK
Grazer AK
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
8/2/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 1Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Grazer AK25%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grazer AK
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg
1.76

Red Bull Salzburg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 128 away

creates per match

Grazer AK
1.31
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Grazer AK
1.38
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Grazer AK+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw
49%
Grazer AK or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
75%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+
10%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals
69%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
32%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
11%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
83%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
52%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)
33%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 1.31 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Grazer AK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grazer AK scores more
25%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
51%

Red Bull Salzburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat Grazer AK 3-2 in Bundesliga on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.