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Red Bull Salzburg vs Chelsea — UEFA Champions League 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
10/25/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group E - 5Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg37%
×Draw24%
Chelsea39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.53
Chelsea
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.74
Chelsea
1.60

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.53
Chelsea
1.32

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
61%
Red Bull Salzburg or Chelsea
76%
Draw or Chelsea
63%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
18%
Chelsea wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
78%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
45%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
20%
Chelsea 1+ goals
79%
Chelsea 2+ goals
46%
Chelsea 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
49%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.74 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chelsea attack 1.60 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
37%
level
24%
Chelsea scores more
39%

Chelsea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Red Bull Salzburg 1–2 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.