Chelsea 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

9/14/2022

UEFA Champions League · Group E - 2Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chelsea51%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Chelsea

1.82

Red Bull Salzburg

1.23

Chelsea creates 48% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

1.76

creates per match

1.58

0.88

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Chelsea

1.76

Red Bull Salzburg

1.58

allows per match

Chelsea

0.88

Red Bull Salzburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

49%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

28%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

27%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

71%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

35%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

66%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.76 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.82

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.58 + Chelsea defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelsea scores more

51%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

26%

Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff