Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 Austria Lustenau

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Lustenau

2/11/2023

Bundesliga · Round 17Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%

×Draw20%

Austria Lustenau15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchAustria Lustenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.90

Red Bull Salzburg

2.13

Austria Lustenau

0.90

Red Bull Salzburg creates 137% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 33 away

2.62

creates per match

0.91

0.88

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Austria Lustenau

0.91

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.88

Austria Lustenau

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Austria Lustenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

85%

Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Lustenau

80%

Draw or Austria Lustenau

35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

41%

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

88%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

63%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

35%

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

59%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

23%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

81%

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

65%

level

20%

Austria Lustenau scores more

15%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff