Austria Lustenau 0–6 Red Bull Salzburg

Austria Lustenau

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Red Bull Salzburg

8/27/2022

Bundesliga · Round 6Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau21%

×Draw21%

Red Bull Salzburg57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria LustenauExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

2.04

Austria Lustenau

1.16

Red Bull Salzburg

2.04

Red Bull Salzburg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 128 away

1.30

creates per match

2.15

1.94

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Austria Lustenau

1.30

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

Austria Lustenau

1.94

Red Bull Salzburg

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw

43%

Austria Lustenau or Red Bull Salzburg

79%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

79%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

8%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

69%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

32%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

11%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

87%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

60%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

27%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more

21%

level

21%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

57%

Red Bull Salzburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff