Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 Admira Wacker: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Admira Wacker

11/20/2021

Bundesliga · Round 15Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%

×Draw19%

Admira Wacker16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchAdmira Wacker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.99

Red Bull Salzburg

2.23

Admira Wacker

0.99

Red Bull Salzburg creates 125% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 64 away

2.62

creates per match

1.09

0.88

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Admira Wacker

1.09

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.88

Admira Wacker

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Admira Wacker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

84%

Red Bull Salzburg or Admira Wacker

81%

Draw or Admira Wacker

35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

42%

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

89%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

65%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

38%

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

63%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

26%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

81%

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Admira Wacker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.23

Admira Wacker attack 1.09 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

65%

level

19%

Admira Wacker scores more

16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Camara

Red Bull Salzburg · M

8.3

Match Events

46'

C. Adamu← N. Oka

50'

Luca Kronberger

57'

J. Ganda← M. Mustapha

62'

Wilhelm Vorsager

72'

P. Schmiedl← T. Ebner

80'

Bernardo← A. Ulmer

80'

B. Šeško← K. Adeyemi

82'

Philipp Schmiedl

87'

M. Ostrzolek← L. Kronberger

90+2'

Leonardo Lukačević

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedAdmira

Overview

75%Possession25%

26Total Shots4

16Corners2

9Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots4

5On Target2

12Off Target1

9Blocked1

15Inside Box4

11Outside Box0

Passing

75%Possession25%

557Total Passes196

474Accurate Passes96

85%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0