Admira Wacker 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Admira Wacker

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

C. Adamu 81'

8/14/2021

Bundesliga · Round 4BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Admira Wacker20%

×Draw22%

Red Bull Salzburg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira WackerExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.89

Admira Wacker

1.02

Red Bull Salzburg

1.89

Red Bull Salzburg creates 85% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 127 away

1.02

creates per match

2.15

1.63

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Admira Wacker

1.02

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

Admira Wacker

1.63

Red Bull Salzburg

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw

42%

Admira Wacker or Red Bull Salzburg

78%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

80%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

7%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

64%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

27%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

8%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

85%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

56%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

26%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.02 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.02 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Admira Wacker defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Admira Wacker scores more

20%

level

22%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

58%

Red Bull Salzburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Camara

Red Bull Salzburg · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

Marlon Mustapha

46'

C. Adamu← B. Šeško

59'

D. Starkl← M. Mustapha

59'

F. Ristanic← L. Kronberger

62'

N. Okafor← K. Adeyemi

62'

N. Capaldo← L. Sučić

62'

A. Bernède← B. Aaronson

63'

I. Elmkies← O. Babuscu

68'

68'

68'

72'

81'

82'

84'

M. Hausjell← W. Vorsager

90+1'

Maximilian Wöber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdmiraRed

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots16

1Corners14

14Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots16

0On Target5

2Off Target7

3Blocked4

2Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

219Total Passes479

107Accurate Passes365

49%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1