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Red Bull Salzburg vs Admira Wacker — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
9/2/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 6Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%
×Draw19%
Admira Wacker16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.21
Admira Wacker
0.98

Red Bull Salzburg creates 126% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 64 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.58
Admira Wacker
1.09

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.86
Admira Wacker
1.83

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Admira Wacker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
84%
Red Bull Salzburg or Admira Wacker
81%
Draw or Admira Wacker
35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
42%
Admira Wacker wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
89%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
65%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
38%
Admira Wacker 1+ goals
62%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
26%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
81%
Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.86 · 128 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.58 + Admira Wacker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Admira Wacker attack 1.09 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
65%
level
19%
Admira Wacker scores more
16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Admira Wacker

Red Bull Salzburg beat Admira Wacker 3-1 in Bundesliga on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Salzburg.