Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Red Arrows vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
Malonga 78'
Y. Saddam 47'
3/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Red Arrows55%
×Draw27%
Prison Leopards18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.46
Prison Leopards
0.71

Red Arrows creates 106% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 95 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
82%
Red Arrows or Prison Leopards
73%
Draw or Prison Leopards
45%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
28%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
77%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
43%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
18%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
51%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
16%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
75%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Red Arrows scores more
55%
level
27%
Prison Leopards scores more
18%

Red Arrows at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
Y. Saddam
78'
Malonga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Arrows vs Prison Leopards

Red Arrows beat Prison Leopards 2-0 in Super League on March 9, 2024.

Goals: Y. Saddam (47'), Malonga (78').

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.