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Prison Leopards vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
M. Mambepa 54'
R. Banda 71'
P. Katema 41'
10/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Prison Leopards37%
×Draw33%
Red Arrows30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Leopards
0.96
Red Arrows
0.83

Prison Leopards creates 16% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Prison Leopards
1.02
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Prison Leopards
0.68
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw
70%
Prison Leopards or Red Arrows
67%
Draw or Red Arrows
63%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+
14%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals
62%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
25%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
7%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
56%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
20%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
55%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Prison Leopards scores more
37%
level
33%
Red Arrows scores more
30%

Prison Leopards at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
P. Katema
54'
M. Mambepa
71'
R. Banda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prison Leopards vs Red Arrows

Red Arrows beat Prison Leopards 2-1 in Super League on October 7, 2023.

Goals: P. Katema (41'), M. Mambepa (54'), R. Banda (71').

The match was played at President Stadium in Kabwe.