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Red Arrows vs Power Dynamos — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
2/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Red Arrows41%
×Draw30%
Power Dynamos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.15
Power Dynamos
0.91

Red Arrows creates 26% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Power Dynamos
1.18

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Power Dynamos
0.78

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Power Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
71%
Red Arrows or Power Dynamos
70%
Draw or Power Dynamos
59%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
17%
Power Dynamos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
68%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
32%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
11%
Power Dynamos 1+ goals
60%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
23%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
59%
Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Power Dynamos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.15

Power Dynamos attack 1.18 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Red Arrows scores more
41%
level
30%
Power Dynamos scores more
29%

Red Arrows at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Arrows vs Power Dynamos

Red Arrows and Power Dynamos drew 0-0 in Super League on February 26, 2026.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.