Power Dynamos 0–0 Red Arrows: Result & Stats

Power Dynamos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Red Arrows

9/8/2024

Super League · Round 2Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Power Dynamos44%

×Draw31%

Red Arrows26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Power DynamosExpected goals in this matchRed Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.80

Power Dynamos

1.14

Red Arrows

0.80

Power Dynamos creates 42% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

0.62

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Power Dynamos

1.38

Red Arrows

0.99

allows per match

Power Dynamos

0.62

Red Arrows

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Red Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw

74%

Power Dynamos or Red Arrows

69%

Draw or Red Arrows

56%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

18%

Red Arrows wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

68%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

32%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

11%

Red Arrows 1+ goals

55%

Red Arrows 2+ goals

19%

Red Arrows 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

63%

Red Arrows (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Power Dynamos scores more

44%

level

31%

Red Arrows scores more

26%

Power Dynamos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff