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Red Arrows vs Nyasa Big Bullets — CAF Champions League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
8/24/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundNational Heroes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Red Arrows44%
×Draw31%
Nyasa Big Bullets26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.14
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.80

Red Arrows creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
0.67
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.60

allows per match

Red Arrows
1.00
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.60

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
74%
Red Arrows or Nyasa Big Bullets
69%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
56%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
18%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
68%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
32%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
11%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
55%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
63%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 0.67 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 0.60 + Red Arrows defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Red Arrows scores more
44%
level
31%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
26%

Red Arrows at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Red Arrows 2–0 Nyasa Big Bullets

Red Arrows beat Nyasa Big Bullets 2-0 in CAF Champions League on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at National Heroes Stadium in Lusaka.