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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Red Arrows — CAF Champions League 2019

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
8/18/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundBingu National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets37%
×Draw27%
Red Arrows36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23
Red Arrows
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.80
Red Arrows
1.00

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.40
Red Arrows
1.67

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
64%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Red Arrows
73%
Draw or Red Arrows
63%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
16%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
71%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
35%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
13%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
70%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
34%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
51%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 0.80 + Red Arrows defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Red Arrows attack 1.00 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
37%
level
27%
Red Arrows scores more
36%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs Red Arrows

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Red Arrows 2-1 in CAF Champions League on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Bingu National Stadium in Lilongwe.