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Red Arrows vs NAPSA Stars — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
2/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Red Arrows51%
×Draw29%
NAPSA Stars20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.29
NAPSA Stars
0.68

Red Arrows creates 90% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
NAPSA Stars
0.71

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
NAPSA Stars
1.08

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

NAPSA Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
80%
Red Arrows or NAPSA Stars
71%
Draw or NAPSA Stars
49%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
24%
NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
72%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
37%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
14%
NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
49%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
15%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
72%
NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Red Arrows scores more
51%
level
29%
NAPSA Stars scores more
20%

Red Arrows at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Arrows 1–0 NAPSA Stars

Red Arrows beat NAPSA Stars 1-0 in Super League on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.