NAPSA Stars 0–1 Red Arrows: Result & Stats

NAPSA Stars

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Red Arrows

3/2/2024

Super League · Round 23REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars36%

×Draw32%

Red Arrows32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAPSA StarsExpected goals in this matchRed Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.90

NAPSA Stars

0.99

Red Arrows

0.90

NAPSA Stars creates 10% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

1.07

creates per match

0.99

0.80

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

NAPSA Stars

1.07

Red Arrows

0.99

allows per match

NAPSA Stars

0.80

Red Arrows

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Red Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw

68%

NAPSA Stars or Red Arrows

68%

Draw or Red Arrows

64%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+

14%

Red Arrows wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals

63%

NAPSA Stars 2+ goals

26%

NAPSA Stars 3+ goals

8%

Red Arrows 1+ goals

59%

Red Arrows 2+ goals

23%

Red Arrows 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)

54%

Red Arrows (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more

36%

level

32%

Red Arrows scores more

32%

NAPSA Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff