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Red Arrows vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
9/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Red Arrows47%
×Draw29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.29
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.83

Red Arrows creates 55% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
76%
Red Arrows or Man Utd Zambia Academy
71%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
53%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
22%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
72%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
37%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
14%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
56%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
20%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
66%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Red Arrows scores more
47%
level
29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
24%

Red Arrows at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Arrows 1–0 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Red Arrows beat Man Utd Zambia Academy 1-0 in Super League on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.