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Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
1/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Nakambala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy36%
×Draw32%
Red Arrows32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.97
Red Arrows
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 111 away

creates per match

Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.78
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Man Utd Zambia Academy ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Man Utd Zambia Academy or draw
68%
Man Utd Zambia Academy or Red Arrows
68%
Draw or Red Arrows
64%

Winning margin

Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
13%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
62%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
25%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
7%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
59%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
22%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
53%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Man Utd Zambia Academy at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 76 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
36%
level
32%
Red Arrows scores more
32%

Man Utd Zambia Academy at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Man Utd Zambia Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Man Utd Zambia Academy 1–4 Red Arrows

Red Arrows beat Man Utd Zambia Academy 4-1 in Super League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nakambala Stadium in Mazabuka.