Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Red Arrows vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
12/15/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Red Arrows49%
×Draw28%
Forest Rangers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.34
Forest Rangers
0.82

Red Arrows creates 63% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
77%
Red Arrows or Forest Rangers
72%
Draw or Forest Rangers
51%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
23%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
74%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
39%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
15%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
56%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
20%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
68%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Red Arrows scores more
49%
level
28%
Forest Rangers scores more
23%

Red Arrows at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Arrows vs Forest Rangers

Red Arrows beat Forest Rangers 1-0 in Super League on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.