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Forest Rangers vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
5/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Dola Hill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Forest Rangers37%
×Draw32%
Red Arrows31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Rangers
0.98
Red Arrows
0.88

Forest Rangers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Forest Rangers
1.06
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Forest Rangers
0.77
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Forest Rangers+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Rangers ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Forest Rangers or draw
69%
Forest Rangers or Red Arrows
68%
Draw or Red Arrows
63%

Winning margin

Forest Rangers wins by 2+
14%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Forest Rangers 1+ goals
62%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
59%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
22%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
54%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Rangers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Rangers attack 1.06 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Forest Rangers defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forest Rangers scores more
37%
level
32%
Red Arrows scores more
31%

Forest Rangers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Forest Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Rangers vs Red Arrows

Red Arrows beat Forest Rangers 1-0 in Super League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Dola Hill Stadium in Ndola.