Recreativo Huelva 0–1 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Recreativo Huelva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia

10/13/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva35%

×Draw30%

Real Murcia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.06

Recreativo Huelva

1.05

Real Murcia

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

1.13

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.13

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.95

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

65%

Recreativo Huelva or Real Murcia

70%

Draw or Real Murcia

65%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

14%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

65%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

28%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

9%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

65%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

29%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

50%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

35%

level

30%

Real Murcia scores more

35%

Recreativo Huelva at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff