Real Murcia 1–0 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Real Murcia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Recreativo Huelva

3/3/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Murcia45%

×Draw29%

Recreativo Huelva26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MurciaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.88

Real Murcia

1.26

Recreativo Huelva

0.88

Real Murcia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

0.87

0.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Real Murcia

1.14

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Real Murcia

0.89

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Murcia or draw

74%

Real Murcia or Recreativo Huelva

71%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

55%

Winning margin

Real Murcia wins by 2+

20%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

36%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

13%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

59%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

22%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

64%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.89 · 76 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia attack 1.14 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Real Murcia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Murcia scores more

45%

level

29%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

26%

Real Murcia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff