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Recreativo Huelva vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
3/9/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva47%
×Draw28%
Real Betis II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo Huelva
1.36
Real Betis II
0.92

Recreativo Huelva creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva
1.13
Real Betis II
0.89

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva
0.95
Real Betis II
1.60

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw
75%
Recreativo Huelva or Real Betis II
72%
Draw or Real Betis II
53%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
22%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
74%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
39%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
16%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
60%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
23%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
65%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more
47%
level
28%
Real Betis II scores more
25%

Recreativo Huelva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo Huelva vs Real Betis II

Real Betis II beat Recreativo Huelva 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.