Real Betis II 3–1 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Recreativo Huelva

9/7/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Betis II36%

×Draw27%

Recreativo Huelva37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Real Betis II

1.25

Recreativo Huelva

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.12

creates per match

0.87

1.67

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

63%

Real Betis II or Recreativo Huelva

73%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

64%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

16%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

71%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

36%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

13%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

72%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

36%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

49%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Betis II scores more

36%

level

27%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

37%

Recreativo Huelva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff