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Recreativo Huelva vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Recreativo Huelva60%
×Draw23%
Los Barrios17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo Huelva
1.79
Los Barrios
0.82

Recreativo Huelva creates 118% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 42 away

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva
1.59
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva
0.75
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw
83%
Recreativo Huelva or Los Barrios
77%
Draw or Los Barrios
40%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
35%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
83%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
53%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
56%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
20%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
78%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.59 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more
60%
level
23%
Los Barrios scores more
17%

Recreativo Huelva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Recreativo Huelva 2 – 0 Los Barrios

Recreativo Huelva beat Los Barrios 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.