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Los Barrios vs Recreativo Huelva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Campo de Futbol Los Cortijillos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Los Barrios32%
×Draw29%
Recreativo Huelva39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.04
Recreativo Huelva
1.17

Recreativo Huelva creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 33 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Recreativo Huelva
1.24

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Recreativo Huelva
1.15

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
61%
Los Barrios or Recreativo Huelva
71%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
68%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
12%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
65%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
28%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
9%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
69%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
33%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
45%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.24 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Los Barrios scores more
32%
level
29%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
39%

Recreativo Huelva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Los Barrios 0–2 Recreativo Huelva

Recreativo Huelva beat Los Barrios 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Los Cortijillos in Los Barrios.