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Recreativo Huelva vs Hércules — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hércules
Hércules
11/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva45%
×Draw28%
Hércules27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo Huelva
1.33
Hércules
0.95

Recreativo Huelva creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva
1.13
Hércules
0.95

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva
0.95
Hércules
1.53

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par
Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Hércules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw
73%
Recreativo Huelva or Hércules
72%
Draw or Hércules
55%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
21%
Hércules wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
74%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
38%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
15%
Hércules 1+ goals
61%
Hércules 2+ goals
25%
Hércules 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
63%
Hércules (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hércules attack 0.95 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more
45%
level
28%
Hércules scores more
27%

Recreativo Huelva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Recreativo Huelva 2–1 Hércules

Recreativo Huelva beat Hércules 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.