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Hércules vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
3/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules50%
×Draw27%
Recreativo Huelva23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.42
Recreativo Huelva
0.85

Hércules creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
77%
Hércules or Recreativo Huelva
73%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
50%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
25%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
76%
Hércules 2+ goals
41%
Hércules 3+ goals
17%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
57%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
21%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
69%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hércules scores more
50%
level
27%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
23%

Hércules at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules vs Recreativo Huelva

Recreativo Huelva beat Hércules 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.