Recreativo Huelva 2–0 Ceuta II: Result & Stats

Recreativo Huelva

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceuta II

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Recreativo Huelva54%

×Draw26%

Ceuta II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchCeuta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.78

Recreativo Huelva

1.50

Ceuta II

0.78

Recreativo Huelva creates 92% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 82 away

1.59

creates per match

0.82

0.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.59

Ceuta II

0.82

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.75

Ceuta II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Ceuta II →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

81%

Recreativo Huelva or Ceuta II

74%

Draw or Ceuta II

46%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

28%

Ceuta II wins by 2+

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

78%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

44%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

19%

Ceuta II 1+ goals

54%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

18%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

74%

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.59 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

54%

level

26%

Ceuta II scores more

19%

Recreativo Huelva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo Huelva vs Ceuta II

Recreativo Huelva beat Ceuta II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.

Recreativo Huelva vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Recreativo Huelva vs Ceuta II