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Ceuta II vs Recreativo Huelva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
1/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ceuta II43%
×Draw29%
Recreativo Huelva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.25
Recreativo Huelva
0.97

Ceuta II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
Recreativo Huelva
1.24

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
Recreativo Huelva
1.15

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
71%
Ceuta II or Recreativo Huelva
71%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
57%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
19%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
71%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
36%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
13%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
62%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
25%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
60%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.24 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceuta II scores more
43%
level
29%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
29%

Ceuta II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ceuta II 0–1 Recreativo Huelva

Recreativo Huelva beat Ceuta II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.