Recreativo Huelva 1–0 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Recreativo Huelva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcorcon

10/27/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva43%

×Draw29%

Alcorcon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Recreativo Huelva

1.23

Alcorcon

0.94

Recreativo Huelva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.13

creates per match

0.92

0.95

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.13

Alcorcon

0.92

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.95

Alcorcon

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

72%

Recreativo Huelva or Alcorcon

71%

Draw or Alcorcon

57%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

19%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

71%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

35%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

13%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

61%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

24%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

60%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

43%

level

29%

Alcorcon scores more

28%

Recreativo Huelva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff