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Alcorcon vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
2/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon50%
×Draw26%
Recreativo Huelva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.50
Recreativo Huelva
0.95

Alcorcon creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
76%
Alcorcon or Recreativo Huelva
74%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
50%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
25%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
78%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
44%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
19%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
61%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
25%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
68%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alcorcon scores more
50%
level
26%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
24%

Alcorcon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Alcorcon 1–0 Recreativo Huelva

Alcorcon beat Recreativo Huelva 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.