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Recreativo do Libolo vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
5/29/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 29Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo41%
×Draw30%
Kabuscorp29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.13
Kabuscorp
0.90

Recreativo do Libolo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 71 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.12
Kabuscorp
0.93

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.87
Kabuscorp
1.14

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
71%
Recreativo do Libolo or Kabuscorp
70%
Draw or Kabuscorp
59%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
17%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
68%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
31%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
11%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
59%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
23%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
59%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + Kabuscorp defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kabuscorp attack 0.93 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
41%
level
30%
Kabuscorp scores more
29%

Recreativo do Libolo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Recreativo do Libolo 2–0 Kabuscorp

Recreativo do Libolo beat Kabuscorp 2-0 in Girabola on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Calulo in Calulo.