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Kabuscorp vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
4/26/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kabuscorp49%
×Draw29%
Recreativo do Libolo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.30
Recreativo do Libolo
0.79

Kabuscorp creates 65% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.29
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.85
Recreativo do Libolo
1.31

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
77%
Kabuscorp or Recreativo do Libolo
71%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
51%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
23%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
73%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
37%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
14%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
55%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
19%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
68%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.85 · 72 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.29 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
49%
level
29%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
23%

Kabuscorp at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabuscorp vs Recreativo do Libolo

Kabuscorp beat Recreativo do Libolo 1-0 in Girabola on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.