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Recreativo do Libolo vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
2 – 0
Dragão
Dragão
2/4/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo67%
×Draw21%
Dragão12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.94
Dragão
0.67

Recreativo do Libolo creates 190% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 14 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.08
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.90
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
88%
Recreativo do Libolo or Dragão
79%
Draw or Dragão
33%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
42%
Dragão wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
86%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
58%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
30%
Dragão 1+ goals
49%
Dragão 2+ goals
15%
Dragão 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
85%
Dragão (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.08 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dragão attack 0.43 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
67%
level
21%
Dragão scores more
12%

Recreativo do Libolo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo do Libolo vs Dragão

Recreativo do Libolo beat Dragão 2-0 in Girabola on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Calulo in Calulo.