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Dragão vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Dragão
Dragão
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
9/24/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão36%
×Draw35%
Recreativo do Libolo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragão
0.89
Recreativo do Libolo
0.76

Dragão creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

Dragão
0.43
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

Dragão
0.79
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dragão or draw
71%
Dragão or Recreativo do Libolo
65%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
64%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+
13%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals
59%
Dragão 2+ goals
22%
Dragão 3+ goals
6%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
53%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
18%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)
56%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.89

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dragão scores more
36%
level
35%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
29%

Dragão at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dragão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragão vs Recreativo do Libolo

Recreativo do Libolo beat Dragão 1-0 in Girabola on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.