Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Recreativo do Libolo vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
11/8/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo44%
×Draw30%
Desportivo Huíla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.17
Desportivo Huíla
0.81

Recreativo do Libolo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 100 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.12
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.87
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
75%
Recreativo do Libolo or Desportivo Huíla
70%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
56%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
19%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
69%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
33%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
11%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
56%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
19%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
63%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
44%
level
30%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
25%

Recreativo do Libolo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo do Libolo vs Desportivo Huíla

Recreativo do Libolo beat Desportivo Huíla 2-1 in Girabola on November 8, 2025.