Desportivo Huíla 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

Desportivo Huíla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Recreativo do Libolo

6/1/2024

Girabola · Round 30Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Desportivo Huíla52%

×Draw29%

Recreativo do Libolo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo HuílaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.69

Desportivo Huíla

1.31

Recreativo do Libolo

0.69

Desportivo Huíla creates 90% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

1.32

creates per match

0.73

0.64

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla

1.32

Recreativo do Libolo

0.73

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla

0.64

Recreativo do Libolo

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw

80%

Desportivo Huíla or Recreativo do Libolo

71%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

48%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

24%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

73%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

38%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

14%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

50%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

15%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

72%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more

52%

level

29%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

20%

Desportivo Huíla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff