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Recreativo do Libolo vs Baixa de Kassange — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
1 – 2
Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
2/17/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo55%
×Draw26%
Baixa de Kassange19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.54
Baixa de Kassange
0.79

Recreativo do Libolo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 15 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.08
Baixa de Kassange
0.67

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.90
Baixa de Kassange
2.00

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Baixa de Kassange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
81%
Recreativo do Libolo or Baixa de Kassange
74%
Draw or Baixa de Kassange
45%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
29%
Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
79%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
45%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
20%
Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
55%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
19%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
74%
Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.08 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
55%
level
26%
Baixa de Kassange scores more
19%

Recreativo do Libolo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo do Libolo vs Baixa de Kassange

Baixa de Kassange beat Recreativo do Libolo 2-1 in Girabola on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Calulo in Calulo.