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Baixa de Kassange vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
FT
1 – 1
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
6/27/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange44%
×Draw30%
Recreativo do Libolo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baixa de Kassange
1.17
Recreativo do Libolo
0.82

Baixa de Kassange creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange
1.00
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange
0.93
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw
74%
Baixa de Kassange or Recreativo do Libolo
70%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
56%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
19%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
69%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
33%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
11%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
56%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
20%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
63%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more
44%
level
30%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
26%

Baixa de Kassange at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baixa de Kassange vs Recreativo do Libolo

Baixa de Kassange and Recreativo do Libolo drew 1-1 in Girabola on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.