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Recreativo da Caála vs Progresso — Girabola 2025

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
3 – 0
Progresso
Progresso
1/24/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Mártires da Canhala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Recreativo da Caála75%
×Draw21%
Progresso4%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
1.67
Progresso
0.21

Recreativo da Caála creates 695% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
1.00
Progresso
0.17

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.25
Progresso
2.33

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–026%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
96%
Recreativo da Caála or Progresso
79%
Draw or Progresso
25%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
44%
Progresso wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
81%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
50%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
23%
Progresso 1+ goals
19%
Progresso 2+ goals
2%
Progresso 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
95%
Progresso (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.00 + Progresso defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Progresso attack 0.17 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
75%
level
21%
Progresso scores more
4%

Recreativo da Caála at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo da Caála vs Progresso

Recreativo da Caála beat Progresso 3-0 in Girabola on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Canhala in Caála.