Progresso 0–3 Recreativo da Caála: Result & Stats

Progresso

FT

0 – 3

Recreativo da Caála

5/24/2021

Girabola · Round 21Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Progresso41%

×Draw30%

Recreativo da Caála28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgressoExpected goals in this matchRecreativo da Caála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.89

Progresso

1.14

Recreativo da Caála

0.89

Progresso creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

0.60

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Progresso

0.60

Recreativo da Caála

0.78

allows per match

Progresso

1.00

Recreativo da Caála

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Recreativo da Caála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Progresso or draw

72%

Progresso or Recreativo da Caála

70%

Draw or Recreativo da Caála

59%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+

17%

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals

68%

Progresso 2+ goals

32%

Progresso 3+ goals

11%

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

59%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

22%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)

59%

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 0.60 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.78 + Progresso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Progresso scores more

41%

level

30%

Recreativo da Caála scores more

28%

Progresso at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff